Robinhood Hits Record Revenue as Prediction Markets Overtake Crypto—but Earnings Fall

Robinhood’s latest quarter makes a stronger case for a broader business—and a weaker case for judging it by revenue alone.

The brokerage reported record revenue of $1.424 billion, up 12% from a year earlier, for the three months ended 30 September 2026. Prediction-market revenue exceeded crypto revenue, while options trading remained its largest transaction-based revenue stream. Yet diluted earnings per share fell 16% to $0.51.

Our reading: Robinhood is becoming less dependent on crypto, but diversification has not yet delivered stronger year-on-year earnings. The useful question is whether its new businesses can grow profitably through changing trading conditions.

The figures below come from Robinhood’s SEC-furnished earnings release, Exhibit 99.1, released on 27 October. These are reported results, not analyst estimates.

Record sales, lower profit

Source: the Q3 release’s financial statements and reconciliation. Adjusted EPS is a new company measure introduced this quarter; the earlier-period figures above are the comparatives supplied in that reconciliation.

The distinction between the two profit rows matters. Total net income includes amounts attributable to non-controlling interests. $468 million is the profit attributable to Robinhood itself, compared with the $476 million total highlighted in the release. Our continuous Robinhood earnings page uses attributable profit consistently across its 2026 quarterly comparison.

Prediction markets now generate more revenue than crypto

Event contracts produced $173 million, more than six times their year-earlier revenue. Crypto revenue fell 55% to $120 million. Options generated $399 million, up 31%, and equities generated $121 million, up 41%.

That is an important change in the mix. Revenue outside crypto was approximately $1.304 billion, against $1.006 billion a year earlier—growth of about 29.6%, calculated by subtracting crypto revenue from total revenue in each period. The rest of the business more than absorbed crypto’s decline.

But a wider range of trading products does not necessarily make revenue steady. Options and prediction markets still require customers to transact. A shareholder should distinguish between more ways to earn trading revenue and income that persists when trading activity cools.

This is why customer assets and recurring subscriptions deserve attention alongside contract volumes. A busier app is useful; a durable financial relationship may be more valuable.

Why earnings fell despite the revenue record

The release identifies $67 million of unrealised investment losses, primarily associated with Robinhood Ventures Fund I. These reduced diluted EPS by approximately $0.07. Investment revaluations can obscure changes in the underlying operating business, so treating the entire earnings decline as deterioration in brokerage operations would be misleading.

The opposite shortcut would also be wrong. Adjusted EPS still declined 3% year on year, and total operating expenses rose 16% to $739 million, faster than revenue. Robinhood cited higher credit-loss provisions as its card loan book expanded, costs associated with newer businesses, and marketing and growth investment.

The adjusted measure is useful as a second view, not a replacement for GAAP. Investors should follow both and inspect the reconciliation: removing investment volatility does not remove the economic costs of building the business.

Deposits are encouraging, but the composition matters

Quarterly net deposits were $15.7 billion. Gold subscribers reached 5.2 million, up 34%, while funded customers increased 7% to 28.7 million.

These measures strengthen the case that customers are doing more than occasionally opening the trading app. However, deposits are customer money entering the platform—not company revenue or profit—and rising platform assets can also reflect market valuations.

Management said October net deposits had already exceeded $13 billion, including $6 billion associated with the Dell family’s contribution to Trump Accounts. That concentration matters when assessing the pace of growth. A large contribution can be economically valuable without being a sensible monthly run rate to extrapolate.

What would make the next quarter more convincing?

We would look for three things: growth across the newer revenue streams, improving earnings after the costs of supporting them, and continued customer inflows without relying on exceptional contributions.

Robinhood narrowed its 2026 outlook for adjusted operating expenses and share-based compensation to $2.675–$2.750 billion, reducing the upper end by $25 million. This is an expense forecast, not revenue guidance, and excludes items including credit-loss provisions. It should not be mistaken for a ceiling on total GAAP costs.

The quarter supports the argument that Robinhood is growing beyond crypto. It leaves open the more demanding question: can it turn that broader business into consistently stronger earnings for shareholders?

Follow the HOOD stock and earnings page for the Q1–Q3 comparison, or browse Compound’s earnings hub. These results alone do not establish whether the shares offer good value at their current price.

Analysis and derived calculations are Compound’s. General information, not a personal investment recommendation. The earnings release was furnished with an SEC Form 8-K; it is not the full Q3 Form 10-Q.

Cover: Noam Galai / Getty Images for TechCrunch, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0. Photographed 10 May 2016; archival, not an image of the 2026 earnings announcement. Resized for display; display cropping may apply.